Can CPEC 2.0 Generate New Quality Productive Forces? A Conditional Conversion Framework for Infrastructure, Industrial Upgrading, and High-Quality Development in Pakistan

Abstract

This study examines whether the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC 2.0) can convert infrastructure assets accumulated under CPEC 1.0 into productivity-enhancing development capabilities in Pakistan. It translates the Chinese policy concept of new quality productive forces into a comparative analytical framework centered on technological innovation, industrial upgrading, green transition, digital connectivity, and inclusive development. The study adopts a theory-guided qualitative case design, combining structured reading of policy documents, mechanism tracing, and indicator-based triangulation. The argument is conditional: CPEC 2.0 marks a strategic and discursive shift from infrastructure accumulation to productive conversion, but this shift is not itself an outcome. Special economic zones, digital connectivity, lower-carbon energy systems, agricultural modernization, and Gwadar-linked logistics are plausible conversion mechanisms. Their developmental effects depend on Pakistan's absorptive capacity, energy-sector reform, institutional coordination, security governance, regulatory predictability, and the ability of domestic firms and local communities to capture spillovers. The study contributes to Belt and Road Initiative and development-corridor scholarship by reframing CPEC as a contested process of capability formation rather than merely a geopolitical corridor, a debt-financed infrastructure program, or a list of bilateral projects.